By Mel Gurtov
Another Venezuela?
Negotiations are ongoing between the US and Cuba as the Trump administration decides whether or not to apply the Venezuela model to Cuba. The US embargo remains in effect, with only one oil tanker—a Russian ship, loaded with 730,000 barrels of oil—allowed to pass through. Cuba’s economy, and especially its health systems, are on a knife’s edge. Questions persist about US aims: Does the US want regime change or economic change? Regime change would require another military squeeze, which Trump may want to avoid while the Iran war rages. Cuba’s warning of resistance to a military intervention also has to be considered by Trump. An economic opening by Cuba would presumably be attractive to US and other foreign investors, as was the case before the revolution.
Cuba’s president, Miguel Diaz-Canel, is not Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela, who has opened the country to foreign oil and mining interests. According to Axios, the US may be backing Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, the grandson of Raul Castro, still Cuba’s most powerful political figure. This practice of hand-picking pliable leaders of countries the US seeks to dominate has a history—for example, Ngo Dinh Diem in Vietnam, Shah Reza Pahlevi in Iran, General Augusto Pinochet in Chile, and now (again in Iran) the Shah’s son. Never has such puppetry led to democratic change and social justice. There’s no reason to believe US pressure this time will—or is intended to—improve the lot of the Cuban people.
The US may regard economic change without regime change as impossible. But they’re evidently trying. According to interviews with Axios, US officials, in talks with Cuban officials April 10, stressed that “the Cuban economy is in free fall and that the island’s ruling elites have a small window to make key U.S. backed reforms before circumstances irreversibly worsen.”
Here is what US officials are proposing, according to Axios:
- Compensating U.S. residents and corporations whose assets and properties were confiscated after the 1959 Revolution.
- The release of remaining political prisoners. (About 2000 prisoners have been released.)
- Ensuring the Cuban people greater political freedoms, which would eventually include free and fair elections.
- Providing Starlink access to enable resumption of Internet service. (A service to Musk, who owns Starlink.)
U.S. officials are relying on Trump’s executive order of January 29 which, without evidence, accused Cuba of being an “extraordinary threat” to US national security and therefore a “national emergency.” That order is meant to justify the blockade of oil shipments to Cuba. The US officials expressed “concerns about foreign intelligence, military, and terror groups operating with Cuban governmental permission less than 100 miles from the American homeland.” All this is a subterfuge; Trump wants to open up Cuba for exploitation with a friendly government in power. Only if Cuba accepts the US demands will the embargo end.
Can Cuba Resist Trump’s Threats?
What if they don’t? “President Trump is committed to pursuing a diplomatic solution, if possible, but will not let the island collapse into a major national security threat if Cuba’s leaders are unwilling or unable to act,” a State Department official said. This threat is the follow-up to several Trump has made in recent months:
- On January 11, that there will be “NO MORE OIL or MONEY GOING to CUBA
- In February, that “a friendly takeover of Cuba” was possible. “Whether I free it, take it, I think I could do anything I want with it.”
- On March 6, that “Cuba is gonna fall pretty soon. . . We’ve got plenty of time, but Cuba’s ready . . . I’ve been watching it for 50 years and it’s fallen right into my lap.”
- On March 17 and 18, that the US will be “taking Cuba in some form,” and “we’ll be doing something with Cuba very soon.”
- On April 13, that the US “may stop by Cuba” after it is finished in Iran. “Cuba is a failing nation” that has been “horribly run for many years.”
What seems clear is that the Trump regime, mired in a costly and unwinnable disaster in Iran, would like nothing better than a “friendly takeover” of Cuba. Gone are the days under Obama and Biden when negotiations aimed at normalizing relations were the norm. Responsible Statecraft reports that US military preparations are in place, citing a USA Today report last week that “the White House ordered the Pentagon and other agencies to expedite preparations for military action on the island. Last Thursday, a U.S. Navy surveillance drone conducted an unusual reconnaissance mission around Cuba.” But an invasion seems like a remote possibility. The blockade, intimidating threats, and an economic squeeze that makes life intolerable for Cubans seem to be Trump’s low-cost strategy for securing a compliant Cuba.
Like Venezuela, the Cuban government has little bargaining power. Unlike Iran, Cuba neither controls a valuable resource nor can retaliate militarily. Cuba can say “no” to some US demands and try to satisfy others, such as by freeing remaining political prisoners and encouraging investments by Cubans in Miami. Cuba certainly needs economic and political reforms. But they can only originate from within, not by becoming an American protectorate.
Mel Gurtov, syndicated by PeaceVoice, is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University.