By Don Valentine
Let me establish that if you enjoy two dollars a gallon gas then you should be elated by this proposition. That is the simple micro economic benefit. In the larger macro scope it will absolutely stifle Iran’s short term goal of gaining a nuclear weapon.
President Obama succinctly articulated in his recent White House press conference that it would be difficult for Iran to obfuscate any nefarious nuclear objectives. Recall from your high school chemistry class that uranium leaves an inerasable footprint anywhere it goes. The global community now has access to trace any movement of nuclear grade uranium. Concisely put, this means nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. There is a finite amount of uranium mines in Iran. The global community would now have access to inspect these mines at will. This makes it impossible for Iran to do anything mysterious with this resource.
Life revolves around the Latin term “Quid Pro Quo”. Thus for the access the international community wants there is a tradeoff. Forbes magazine estimates that Iran has nearly $150 billion in frozen assets globally. This money was tied up due to U.N. sanctions to discourage Iran from proceeding to build a nuclear weapon. The bulk of this money was derived from past oil sales. Iran will eventually gain access to their money.
A great perk for the U.S. economy is that Iran will now be able to go back to selling oil on the international market. Alireza Nader, a senior analyst for the RAND Corporation estimates that Iran ranks fifth in global oil reserves. Once they return to selling oil internationally this will increase the glut in oil sales. It seems likely two dollar gas prices will be in our future.
From the international perspective, the pending deal is structured so Iran will not get a “Signing Bonus” as some detractors have suggested. They must comply with the agreement in full be-fore they can access their frozen money. Moreover, they cannot return to the global market place until they comply with the agreement. This means the Fordow facility, built under a mountain and impervious to most military options will be transformed into a research facility. Further, the Arak heavy-water reactor will be modified so it can’t be used for the production of weapons.
This proposal will leave another positive plank for President Obama’s legacy. His staff managed to get some of our less ardent supporters, Russia and China, to endorse this project. The international community is adamant that Iran should not join the Nu-clear Fraternity.
Don Valentine freelance writer, U.C. Berkeley ’89 B.S. Psychology, Mc-George Law School J.D. ‘92