The same survey shows a close governor’s race, putting both contests at the top of Florida’s ballot within the poll’s margin of error.
By Westside Gazette Staff
A new statewide poll finds Democrat Angie Nixon and Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody virtually tied in Florida’s Senate race, a result that challenges the assumption that the contest is already settled.
St. Pete Polls found Moody at 45.2% and Nixon at 44.8% among likely voters. Rounded to whole numbers, each stands at 45%. Another 7.1% were undecided, while 2.9% chose someone else. The four-tenths-of-a-point difference is well within the survey’s 3.2-point margin of error.
The survey, conducted Sept. 15–17 for Florida Politics, questioned 913 likely voters. Its close result is significant for Nixon, a state representative who won the Democratic nomination in August and is challenging Moody for the Senate seat she was appointed to fill. It is also a snapshot of voter preferences, not a prediction of the November result.
Nixon’s strength among voters outside the two major parties stands out. In the poll’s independent-voter breakdown, she led Moody 49.8% to 37.4%. Among Black respondents, Nixon drew 74.1%, while Moody received 14.3%. Those smaller groups should be read with care, but they show where each campaign has support to build on.
Florida’s governor’s race was even closer in the same survey: Republican Byron Donalds drew 43.5% and Democrat David Jolly 43.4%. With neither candidate holding a meaningful polling lead in either contest, the survey presents two competitive races at the top of Florida’s ticket. (stpetepolls.org)
For Nixon, the question now is whether she can turn this showing into votes across the state. For Moody, it is whether she can widen a lead that this survey finds too small to distinguish from a tie. Other polls have shown Moody ahead, so one survey cannot establish that the race has permanently shifted. It does establish that, in this poll, Florida voters are closely divided with Election Day approaching. (stpetepolls.org, tampafp.com, cbsnews.com)