by Mel Gurtov
President Donald Trump hates to lose, but he is on a losing streak in the Middle East—not just in Iran, where his illegal, unprovoked war has been a strategic and diplomatic disaster, but also in Gaza, Lebanon, and the US Congress. Israel’s military is out of control in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump surely doesn’t mind that happening in Gaza, except that his prized Board of Peace is powerless to remake the strip into a showcase of peace and prosperity. In Lebanon, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu don’t see eye to eye on strategy, obstructing Trump’s desperate hope for an agreement with Iran that will take the war out of the public eye. And in the US Congress, Trump has just watched as Republican defectors have given the anti-Iran war members an unprecedented victory, putting further pressure on Trump to find an exit.
Humanitarian Disaster in Gaza
Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to seize control of 70 percent of the Gaza Strip, in violation of the US-brokered cease-fire agreement of last October that had already given Israel 53% control up to the demarcation line. With Hamas refusing to disarm, Netanyahu said in a televised broadcast: “We are currently squeezing Hamas. We now control 60% of the territory in the strip. You know, we were at 50, we moved to 60. My directive is to move to … 70%.” CNN reports that “Throughout the eight months of the ceasefire, Israeli forces have continued to open fire on Palestinians within range of the “yellow line” splitting the strip, and carry out airstrikes deeper inside western Gaza, killing more than 900 Palestinians since the truce began.”
Where is Trump’s Board of Peace, you might ask? It’s supposed to be leading the way to a new era in Gaza. Well, it’s moribund—it hasn’t met since its first meeting in February, it hasn’t spent a dime despite Trump’s claims of major donations, and it is powerless as Israel extends the occupation and the population experiences a food crisis—a classic study in ethnic cleansing. Trump is permanent chair of this board, making its irrelevance particularly embarrassing. Thankfully, the quiet death of the Board also means the demise of Jared Kushner’s scheme to remake Gaza into a glitzy hotel-and-beach resort.
Lebanon: A Contest of Wills
Lebanon may look like a Trump win, but it isn’t. Israel has made a mockery of the cease-fire in southern Lebanon. Important differences have emerged between Netanyahu and Trump on strategy there. Whereas Trump wants to preside over a successful truce between Lebanon and Israel, the IDF are trampling on Lebanon’s sovereignty. The IDF has declared southern Lebanon a “combat zone.” Netanyahu ordered attacks on Beirut’s southern outskirts last week, only to belay the order, reportedly at Trump’s insistence. The two had words, both acknowledged; Trump revealed he called Bibi “crazy.” That sounds about right. Nevertheless, Israel occupies around 14 percent of Lebanese territory, and residents of around 300 villages and towns are being told to leave.
Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have made clear that they do not want Israel to continue its invasion of Lebanon, which Iran has said must stop as a condition of ending the war with the US. The Wall Street Journal reports two angry exchanges between Trump and Netanyahu on Lebanon:
“On Monday [June 1], Trump held two tense phone calls with Netanyahu about the impending operation, two people familiar with the matter said. Trump demanded Israel stop attacks on Beirut in both conversations, the people said, leading to heated discussions. But the second call escalated as Netanyahu insisted on attacking Hezbollah. Trump, his voice rising with anger, said Netanyahu had to obey because he would be in prison without the White House’s support, the people said. Netanyahu faces an ongoing corruption trial in Israel, and Trump has repeatedly called for him to be pardoned.”
In short, the close ties between Israel and the US that enabled the war on Iran have turned nasty as Trump has come to regard Netanyahu as a spoiler. The Israeli leader has gotten in the way of Trump’s exit plan and, as Netanyahu surely knows, it is costly to have a rift with a president who is quick to exact retribution on friend or foe. Yet don’t count Bibi out; his continuation in office depends heavily on war making.
Defeat in Congress
Then there’s Congress, where the House has just handed Trump a stinging defeat with passage of a war powers bill that directs him to withdraw US forces from Iran unless Congress votes to continue their presence. The vote of 215-208 saw four Republicans support the bill, enough to ensure passage. Now the bill goes to the Senate, which has already passed a similar measure. However, even passage in the Senate may not ensure US withdrawal, since the Supreme Court may weigh in on Trump’s right to veto the bill. A veto would then require two-thirds of both houses to override.
Nevertheless, this unprecedented rebuke of a president in wartime reflects Trump’s downturn in what had been an almost automatic authority over Congress. The House action comes at a time of consistent Trump defeats in the courts, Republicans’ rejection of his $1.8 billion slush fund for aggrieved partisans, and their hesitation to support a $1 billion bill for his ballroom security. No ideological shift here, merely votes by some Republicans anxious to survive the November elections or already on their way out the door.
Mel Gurtov, syndicated by PeaceVoice, is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University.
