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Change in the wind for Cuba?


By Don Valentine

      Fidel passes on at the age of 90.  What will this portend for our island neighbors. More importantly, will this event affect the lives of the hundred of thousands of South Floridian Cuban Americans?

A logical analysis would be that this will be a presage for the status quo to go on in Cuba.  Raul Castro, his younger brother, has been in charge for nearly a decade. Notice the Cuban regime has made less than marginal progress for latitude to a more open democratic society.  Given the Castro genes surviving cigars and Cuban rum to make it to 90, Raul is also going to be there for awhile. Further, the Cuban military basks in the comfort of the current setting. That will not change with out a major struggle.

The current administration’s overtures to reduce our tension with Cuba is a step in the right direction.  The big concern is that in less than 60 days a new administration takes office. No one can predict what that fragile regime will do. Will it erode the start to progress and communication with Cuba?  Rational minds would argue the amplification of chances for the non-communist world to interact with the Cubans is positive. There is no downside to additional interaction with the rest of the global community. History shows that this exchange of thoughts helps break the walls of oppression.  It happened in East Germany and in the U.S. during the civil rights era in the 60’s.

Given the facilitations of the Trump administration, it would appear that the future will be as dark as ever for Cuba. Trump has been very clear that he will overturn President Obama’s administration’s executive overtures toward Cuba. There are people that would argue that Mr. Trump’s attention would be better served studying up on foreign policy dynamics.  Not a bad idea since he has only taken 2 of the requisite Presidential Daily Briefings [P.D.B] since being elected. This briefing is given to the “Sitting or President Elect” to keep them current on all world hot spots. Given that cavalier approach from the President Elect, do not anticipate any immediate change for Cuba.

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