By Mel Gurtov
Some Questions
Hamas has accepted Donald Trump’s plan for ending the Gaza war. Under the plan, Hamas, in exchange for the release of 250 Palestinian prisoners and 1,700 Gazans in prison, will release all remaining hostages and the remains of others; will disarm; and will accept an Israeli security presence in Gaza that eventually will be internationalized.
Steps toward Palestinian statehood are promised under the plan. Hamas’ top negotiator said on October 9 that the war in Gaza “is completely over” and that Hamas had received guarantees from the United States, Arab mediators and Turkey that the cease-fire is permanent.
We may all be happy that this agreement promises to bring the hostages and the prisoners home, end the Israeli bombing of civilian targets, and impose a cease-fire. But this is not a peace agreement, it is a cease-fire agreement.
Crucial questions remain to be answered before we can say that peace has broken out.
For example: Will Hamas fully disarm before the occupation of Gaza is over and before it has real assurances that Palestinian statehood will come about? When will the IDF, which supposedly is now in a defensive posture, release its grip on Gaza? (Bombing in Gaza continued the day the agreement was announced.) Will the Palestinian people who have fled be able to return to what’s left of their homes? Where will the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians go who have no home, no business, no health services? Who will pay the billions of dollars needed to rebuild the Gaza Strip? Will the Israeli far right drop its opposition to the plan, since it is saying it will withdraw support of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if Hamas continues to exist? And will Netanyahu abide by the plan, since he has failed to win the “total victory” he demanded and probably will still have to deal with Hamas in the future?
Israeli commentators are describing the deal as a huge setback for Netanyahu because he had to accept Trump’s orders. That won’t go down well.
Palestinian Statehood and the West Bank Occupation
In short, much remains to be determined. And one very large undetermined issue, which directly affects prospects for Palestinian statehood as well as Netanyahu’s political future, is Israel’s tightening grip on the West Bank. Claire Parker writes for the Washington Post that Netanyahu’s government and its settler allies are already laying the groundwork to eventually extend Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank.
“Within the past year, Israel has:
- Approved new Jewish settlements at a record rate, while settlers have established an unprecedented number of informal outposts, often endorsed by the government after the fact.
- Advanced projects put on hold for decades, including a plan to develop a significant tract of land east of Jerusalem that could thwart Palestinian aspirations for statehood by dividing the West Bank in two.
- Approved a plan to resume land registration in the West Bank, suspended six decades ago, that could force Palestinians to produce property documents from before Israel’s establishment to prove ownership or face potential confiscation.
- Ordered the extended deployment of the Israeli army for the first time into Palestinian refugee camps, which under the 1993 Oslo accords are to be solely under Palestinian control, and displaced tens of thousands of their inhabitants.
- Lent support to radical settlers whose rapidly escalating attacks on Palestinians and their property are designed, residents and human rights activists say, to drive Palestinians off their land.”
Parker continues: “Taken together, these developments represent the most significant transformation of the West Bank since Israel captured it from Jordan in the 1967 war and Jewish settlements began to take root in the occupied land soon after.” They ensure that a separate Palestinian state will be extremely difficult to create. And if it is up to Netanyahu, it won’t be. As he said in mid-September: “A Palestinian state will not be established. This place is ours. We will also take care of our heritage, our country and our security.”
Peace in the Middle East, now as in the past, depends upon equal and secure statehood for Israel and Palestine, with security for both guaranteed by outside powers. The Gaza agreement is one step toward that goal: important, but uncertain and incomplete.
Mel Gurtov, syndicated by PeaceVoice, is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University.
