What’s the significance when polls say Presidential race tied?
By Roger Caldwell
There are less than seven weeks left in the Presidential campaign, and according to the New York Times, the race is tied. Clinton has outspent Trump 10 to 1, but he is closing the gap, and it appears he has momentum.
The Democrats and Hillary’s campaign team are shocked, and everyone is wondering what they are doing wrong in 2016. But in 2012, the Democrats are forgetting the final Gallup polls had Romney winning 49% to 48% Obama. Only two polls had Obama winning and that was Pew Research Center and ABC news. All the other polls had the two candidates tied, and everyone was biting their nails, or thinking that Obama was going to lose.
During the first week of October in 2012, the polls were tied, and Romney moved ahead in mid-October after the first debate. President Obama’s support grew as a result of his response and handling of “Super-storm Sandy.” Many pundits also acknowledged that the Black and Hispanic vote helped determine the final results of the election.
America is fundamentally divided and Hillary is considered the extreme left. Many believe there is limited enthusiasm in her campaign, and maybe Hillary is no fun. During late August, Hillary was missing in action, and she has not been transparent. When the candidate has been diagnosed with pneumonia, and most of her team is unaware of her condition, something’s wrong.
The polls were wrong in 2012, and Obama decimated Romney by 51.1% to 47.3%.But Hillary has a different set of problems, starting with integrity and ending with scandals. Both candidates in 2016 are senior citizens, yet Hillary appears older. Many Democrats are dismissing her medical episodes as no big deal, but the Republicans are claiming that Hillary’s health makes her unfit for the job of President of the United States.
Donald Trump has Hillary on the ropes, and he is starting to see and smell blood. As the race tightens, the polls indicate that very few Americans know what Hillary actually stands for, but she has a number of policy statements on her website. On the other hand, Trump has been talking policy for only three weeks, and if you close your eyes, he is taking a page out of the Democratic play-book.
If Trump wins the 24 states that Romney won in 2012, and wins any two of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, he could potentially win the election. This year the polls appear to be more accurate, because the numbers are based on likely voters. The 2016 presidential race will probably end in a photo finish with both candidates running nearly even in the Electoral College.
Clinton does have an advantage among minorities, women, people who make more than $75k, and people with progressive ideas and thinking. Trump has an advantage with white men, church-goers, and people who are nearing retirement age. If Hillary is able to win the youth, college students, senior citizens, and get 50% of the independent vote, she can win the election.
Overall, Americans appear to be relatively uninspired by their choices for president, says the Reuters poll. One out of every five likely voters said they do not support Clinton or Trump for president. In a previous comparison, about one out of every ten likely voters wouldn’t support Obama or Romney at a similar point in the 2012 presidential campaign.
It doesn’t matter which poll you use, the ground game will determine who will win the election. If youth, minorities, women, and senior citizens show up at the polls, Hillary will win. The polls are tight and this election will be a photo finish, but the debates could change the optics of the presidential election.
