By Mel Gurtov
Signaling an Invasion
Israel’s planting of explosive material in pagers and walkie-talkies could be the forerunner to an invasion of southern Lebanon. Defense minister Yoav Gallant implied as much when he said those explosions are “the beginning of a new era in this war.”
Israeli fighter jets bombing around Beirut reinforced the message. The Guardian reports that
“Israel’s top general has said the country is preparing for a possible ground operation inside Lebanon as the country’s military called up two brigades of reserve troops and an intense bombing campaign inside Lebanon stretched into a third day. Israel’s chief of staff, Major General Herzi Halevi, visiting troops in the north of Israel, said that current attacks on Lebanon aimed to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure and prepare for the possibility of Israeli troops crossing the border.”
An Israeli government spokesman, asked whether Israel’s air assault in southern Lebanon amounts to a “declaration of war,” said: “Hezbollah needs to be ejected from Lebanon.”
Casualty figures keep rising: “The death toll after three days of Israeli bombardment had passed 600, Lebanese health authorities said,” The Guardian reports. Thousands more people have been injured. The UN said 90,000 people had been displaced, on top of more than 200,000 people who had left their homes in southern Lebanon over the past year as Hezbollah and Israel exchanged fire over the border.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel would take “whatever action is necessary” to diminish the threat posed by Hezbollah. No opposition leader in Israel is saying otherwise. Netanyahu has rejected a US-France proposal for a 21-day cease-fire, saying the attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon would continue until Israelis living in the north could safely return home. “There will be no ceasefire in the north. We will continue to fight against the Hezbollah terrorist organization with all our strength until victory,” Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on X.
The deputy leader of Hamas warned that the conflict was entering “a new stage.” Naim Qassem addressed the funeral for one of the group’s commanders who was killed in an Israeli strike. “What happened last night is just the beginning,” he warned with reference to Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on Israel.
The Unchanging US Position
The US position on the evolving war in Lebanon is strikingly similar to its stance on Gaza: expressions of concern, lots of shuttle diplomacy, but no effort at direct intervention to influence Israel’s strategy. Thus, US officials say the Biden administration is “extremely concerned” about the risk of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon, but they still think a deal is possible if Hezbollah gives in under Israeli military pressure. Those US officials apparently hope Israel is correctly calculating that increasing attacks against Hezbollah will lead, not to war, but to “de-escalation through escalation.”
That could be a strategic error of the highest order. More escalation usually leads to more escalation in return, and then to an out-of-control situation. “We have disagreements with the Israelis on tactics and how you measure escalation risk,” Biden adviser Brett McGurk said last week. “It is a very concerning situation.” It should be a whole lot more than “concerning.” (How about “enough is enough!”?)
US officials are scurrying about trying to contain the fighting. Antony Blinken, said he was working “tirelessly” with allies to try to shift the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah back to “a diplomatic process that would allow Israelis and Lebanese alike to go back to their homes.”
In an interview, Pres. Biden acknowledged that “an all-out war is possible,” but added that there’s still the opportunity for a resolution contingent on Israel changing “some policies.” “We’re still in play to have a settlement that can fundamentally change the whole region,” Biden said, in an interview on The View. “The Arab world very much wants to have a settlement, because they know what it does for them. They’re willing to make arrangements with Israel and alliances with Israel, if Israel changes some policies.”
Biden said he has a strong relationship with Netanyahu, but he said, “I don’t agree with his position. There needs to be a two-state solution. Ultimately, it needs to happen. There’s a way to do it, and they have a possibility.”
That view amounts to whistling in the dark, since the fighting has clearly overtaken the diplomatic process. A two-state solution seems farther away than ever. And the US is contributing to the increasingly dire situation by refusing to hold back, much less embargo, arms shipments to Israel.
Saying Israel needs to change “some policies” is fantasy. Fact is, Israel is calling the shots, as it has throughout this war. The longer the war goes on, and the more it expands, the less influence the US seems to have—as witness the swift rejection of the US-France cease-fire proposal—and (as the chart below by @StephenSemler shows) the more Israel gets from the US in military aid. Hardly what the textbooks say about great-power politics.
Mel Gurtov, syndicated by PeaceVoice, is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University and blogs at In the Human Interest.
